RESEARCH

What We're Seeing.
What It Means.

The data speaks for itself—polling releases, media appearances, commentary, and research from the Bullfinch team and our affiliated organizations.

The One-Month Out Election Forecast: A Q&A with Pollster Brett Loyd

Oct 1

The One-Month Out Election Forecast: A Q&A with Pollster Brett Loyd

Oct 1

How Open Primary Reform Is Creating Room for Independents in a Historically Narrow House

Jul 31

Public Survey Releases

We can't see the future; no one can. But as non-partisan and independent political strategists, we strive to share raw and unbiased data into today's political landscape.

For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Leads Incumbent Jim Risch in Two-Way Head-to-Head Matchup

BOISE, ID — Newly released polling data from a statewide survey of likely 2026 voters in Idaho shows Independent candidate Todd Achilles jumping to a 5-point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch when voters are offered a direct head-to-head choice. Date: August 19, 2026 Contact: Brett Loyd, The Bullfinch Group Email: Info@thebullfinchgroup.com Key Takeaways 1. Achilles Takes the Lead in Two-Way Ballot Test When voters are asked to choose directly between the incum

Aug 19

Public Release Of Bullfinch Q3 Nationwide Survey

The Bullfinch Group conducted a nationwide online survey fielded August 14-17, 2026, among 1,200 adults, of which n1,000 respondents were registered voters. Sampling controls were used to ensure that a proportional and representative number of respondents were interviewed from demographic groups such as age, gender, political affiliation, race, and geographic region. Overall margin of error is ±2.83% at the 95% confidence interval for adults. Margin of error for registered vo

Aug 18

For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Within 4 Points Among Likely Voters

New Idaho Poll: Recent statewide polling of likely 2026 voters in Idaho shows Independent Todd Achilles in an exceptionally strong position against incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch. Achilles trails Risch by just 4 percentage points while boasting a stellar net favorability rating and huge room for growth. Date: August 13, 2026 Contact: Brett Loyd, The Bullfinch Group Email: Info@thebullfinchgroup.com Key Takeaways 1. A Virtual Dead Heat in a Red State Despite Idaho’s Re

Aug 13

Public Release Of Bullfinch Q2 Nationwide Survey

The Bullfinch Group conducted a nationwide online survey fielded May 29 - June 2, 2026, among 1,200 adults, of which n1,000 respondents were registered voters. Sampling controls were used to ensure that a proportional and representative number of respondents were interviewed from demographic groups such as age, gender, political affiliation, race, and geographic region. Overall margin of error is ±2.83% at the 95% confidence interval for adults. Margin of error for registered

Jun 4

For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Surges on Informed Ballot

New Idaho Poll: Economic Anxiety and Accountability Concerns Drive Mass Vulnerability for Incumbent Risch; Independent Todd Achilles Surges on Informed Ballot Date: June 2, 2026 Contact: Brett Loyd, The Bullfinch Group Email: Info@thebullfinchgroup.com The Bullfinch Group, a nonpartisan polling firm, today released the findings of a comprehensive statewide survey of registered voters in Idaho. The survey, fielded as part of an ongoing regional landscape assessment alongside i

Jun 2

Public Release Of Bullfinch & MainFrame Q1 Nationwide Survey

The Bullfinch Group, in conjuction with MainFrame, conducted a nationwide online survey fielded February 13-16, 2026, among 1,200 adults, of which n1,000 respondents were registered voters. Sampling controls were used to ensure that a proportional and representative number of respondents were interviewed from demographic groups such as age, gender, political affiliation, race, and geographic region. Overall margin of error is ±2.83% at the 95% confidence interval for adults.

Feb 17

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In the News

As a trusted political analyst and commentator, Brett Loyd regularly shares data-driven insights and balanced commentary with national and local news outlets.

October 22, 2026

WABI5 Maine

Maine Bill Seeks to Replace ‘Unenrolled’ with ‘Independent’ on Voter Forms

October 7, 2026

ABC10 Sacramento

California Voters Urged to Critically Review Political Polls Ahead of the Election

September 29, 2026

Sacramento Bee

Poll says Kiley, Pan virtually tied in Sacramento-area 6th District House race

August 4, 2026

TEMPO

Trump's Approval Rating Hits Second-Term Low Ahead of US Midterms

July 28, 2026

Semafor

Independent Group Tests DelBene’s Seat

July 12, 2026

Newsweek

Independents Surge: Maps Show Where Candidates Are Rejecting Both Parties

Page 1

Insights

Perspectives, analysis, and original commentary from Brett Loyd and the Bullfinch team. This is where we share what the data is telling us, what we think it means, and why it matters—without the spin.

The One-Month Out Election Forecast: A Q&A with Pollster Brett Loyd

As seen on The Independent Center: https://www.independentcenter.org/articles/the-one-month-out-election-forecast-a-q-a-with-pollster-brett-loyd One month out, pollster Brett Loyd reads the data and explains why Independents could steal the show on Election Night. Holden: So, Brett, we’re officially about a month out from Election Day. What is actually going to happen when the polls open? Brett: Well, if I had a flawless crystal ball, I’d be sipping drinks on a beach somewher

Oct 1

How Open Primary Reform Is Creating Room for Independents in a Historically Narrow House

As seen on The Independent Center: https://www.independentcenter.org/articles/how-open-primary-reform-is-creating-room-for-independents-in-a-historically-narrow-house Could structural reforms to how candidates reach the ballot end up shaping control of a closely divided Congress? Nonpartisan forecasters currently project the House majority in 2026 to land somewhere in the 218–222 seat range — one of the narrowest margins in modern history. That kind of arithmetic changes what

Jul 31

The Semiquincentennial Renewal: Reclaiming One Nation for America’s 250th Fourth of July

As seen on The Independent Center: https://www.independentcenter.org/articles/the-semiquincentennial-renewal-reclaiming-one-nation-for-americas-250th-fourth-of-july Tomorrow, the skies across our nation will ignite with brilliance, but this is no ordinary Fourth of July. This is our Semiquincentennial. Two hundred and fifty years ago a brave group of visionaries signed a document that changed the course of human history. They wagered their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor on

Jul 3

Why the 2026 Midterm Map is Being Rewritten by Independents

As seen on The Independent Center: https://www.independentcenter.org/articles/why-the-2026-midterm-map-is-being-rewritten-by-independents In the corporate world, the phrase “because that’s the way we’ve always done it” is a warning sign of a brand in decline. It signals a company that has stopped listening to its customers and started relying on a monopoly that no longer exists. In the business of politics, that same stagnation has set in. If your electoral models are only ca

Jun 17

Bullfinch Closing Arguments: Why Democrats May Have the Edge

The 2024 presidential race is close, and well within the polling margins of error (both currently and historically). So, at quick glance let's say each candidate has a 50/50 chance. But in my mind, the top of ticket polling (especially national polling) shows us little. There are other metrics that matter come election day that seemingly give the advantage to Democrats / Harris: which candidate or party has more money to close with (+Democrats) who is winning the down ballot

Oct 28, 2024

Your Election Guide for the Midrust Battlegrounds

In this final stretch of the 2024 campaign, we’d like to do things a little differently, and share our Fully Unweighted, Completely Transparent (F.U.C.T.) data. Below you’ll find our toplines, crosstabs, and raw data. Why raw data, you ask? Think of this as March Madness. As pollsters and political strategists, we think we have a good idea about what the electorate will look like and how things will shake out. But you may want to make your own bracket and picks based on what

Oct 18, 2024

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