For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Surges on Informed Ballot
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New Idaho Poll: Economic Anxiety and Accountability Concerns Drive Mass Vulnerability for Incumbent Risch; Independent Todd Achilles Surges on Informed Ballot
Date: June 2, 2026
Contact: Brett Loyd, The Bullfinch Group
Email: Info@thebullfinchgroup.com
The Bullfinch Group, a nonpartisan polling firm, today released the findings of a comprehensive statewide survey of registered voters in Idaho. The survey, fielded as part of an ongoing regional landscape assessment alongside independent electoral coalitions including Todd Achilles for Senate, highlights a deeply volatile political climate defined by widespread economic frustration and structural dissatisfaction with the state’s political status quo.
The data reveals that voters are highly receptive to independent alternatives in the upcoming U.S. Senate election, with incumbent Senator Jim Risch facing stark headwinds under increased scrutiny.
Key Findings: Economic Strain and Government Accountability Dominate Voter Minds
Idaho voters are expressing severe anxiety regarding their finances, alongside a growing demand for transparency and systemic checks on power.
Personal Finances on the Decline: A plurality of Idahoans (47%) state that their personal economic situation has gotten worse over the past year. Daily expenses rank decisively as the single most important issue facing voters today.
Accountability is a Top Priority: The second most vital issue on voters' minds is government accountability. One in five registered voters (20%) cite concerns over government overreach, public corruption, or a lack of checks and balances on political power as the most important issue to them personally.
Appetite for Collaborative Leadership: Highlighting a widespread desire for pragmatic governance, three-quarters (75%) of Idaho voters view a "politician willing to work with both sides of the aisle" as a favorable attribute, including 46% who view such a candidate as "very favorable."
The Initial Ballot: Wide Open and Volatile
While incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch remains the most widely recognized candidate in the race, his foundation with voters is remarkably weak. Fewer than 1-in-3 registered voters (30%) approve of the job he is doing, and he carries a net-negative overall favorability rating statewide.
The Initial Three-Way Race: On the initial, un-messaged ballot test, Risch holds a 23-point lead over Independent Todd Achilles, while Democrat David Roth trails in third place. Crucially, more than a quarter of the electorate (26%) remains "not sure" how they will vote.
The Initial Head-to-Head Matchup: When the ballot is narrowed down to a direct head-to-head matchup between Risch and Achilles, Risch’s lead collapses to just 4 points, with 23% of voters remaining "not sure."
The Informed Shift: Messaging Flips the Race for Achilles
The survey tested standard messaging regarding Senator Risch’s long-term legislative record and job performance alongside biographical information about Independent candidate Todd Achilles' background. Once voters were presented with this information, the electoral dynamic underwent a massive shift.
The Informed Three-Way Race: Upon hearing the tested messaging, Risch’s support plummets to 28%. Independent Todd Achilles reverses the deficit, surging into a clear 11-point frontrunner position over the three-way field.
The Informed Head-to-Head Race: In a direct, informed two-way matchup, Achilles dramatically outperforms Risch, opening a 20-point lead and exceeding the critical majority threshold with over 50% of total voter support.
"This data underscores a shifting paradigm in Idaho politics," said Brett Loyd, President and CEO of The Bullfinch Group. "Idahoans are feeling a severe pinch from daily expenses and are voicing deep exhaustion with a perceived lack of government accountability. While Senator Risch enters the race with decades of name recognition, his struggling job approval opens a massive lane for an independent alternative. Once voters are introduced to a viable Independent candidate like Todd Achilles, partisan baselines break apart, completely redefining the ceiling of this Senate race."
Methodology Insights
This statewide survey was fielded from May 29 to June 1, 2026, among 774 registered voters in Idaho. The overall margin of error is +/- 3.52% at a 95% confidence interval. Strict demographic subquotas were established prior to fielding, and post-fielding statistical weighting was applied to ensure that voter registration, gender, geography, age, and race accurately reflect the representative composition of the state of Idaho. The survey was executed using a blended methodology consisting of 67% SMS-to-web outreach and 33% opt-in online panel respondents.
About The Bullfinch Group
The Bullfinch Group is a nonpartisan, independent polling and political insights firm dedicated to analyzing public opinion, market trends, and shifting electoral behaviors across the United States.