For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Within 4 Points Among Likely Voters
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New Idaho Poll: Recent statewide polling of likely 2026 voters in Idaho shows Independent Todd Achilles in an exceptionally strong position against incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch. Achilles trails Risch by just 4 percentage points while boasting a stellar net favorability rating and huge room for growth.
Date: August 13, 2026
Contact: Brett Loyd, The Bullfinch Group
Email: Info@thebullfinchgroup.com
Key Takeaways
1. A Virtual Dead Heat in a Red State
Despite Idaho’s Republican baseline, the head-to-head ballot test shows a wide-open race:
Jim Risch (R): 34%
Todd Achilles (I): 30%
Matt Loesby (L): 4%
Undecided: 32%
Achilles sitting at 30% support—just 4 points behind a three-term incumbent—demonstrates that his independent message is breaking through party lines and attracting broad support across the electorate.
2. Incumbent Jim Risch is Deeply Vulnerable
Incumbent Jim Risch is fundamentally stuck below the critical 50% threshold and is underwater with voters:
Job Approval: 32% Approve / 39% Disapprove (-7 Net)
Favorability: 39% Favorable / 44% Unfavorable (-5 Net)
3. Achilles Holds a Positive Image with Massive Growth Potential
While Risch’s brand is damaged, Achilles enters the race with overwhelming goodwill and a huge ceiling:
Net Favorability: +27 points (36% Favorable / 9% Unfavorable)
Growth Opportunity: 54% of voters either have not heard of Achilles (23%) or remain undecided on him (31%).
4. The Electorate Identifies as Independent
While voter registration is heavily Republican (61%), 45% of voters self-identify politically as Independents when asked about their actual beliefs. Achilles’ independent ballot line aligns directly with the true political identity of the electorate.
