For Immediate Release: Independent Todd Achilles Leads Incumbent Jim Risch in Two-Way Head-to-Head Matchup
BOISE, ID — Newly released polling data from a statewide survey of likely 2026 voters in Idaho shows Independent candidate Todd Achilles jumping to a 5-point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch when voters are offered a direct head-to-head choice.
Date: August 19, 2026
Contact: Brett Loyd, The Bullfinch Group
Email: Info@thebullfinchgroup.com
Key Takeaways
1. Achilles Takes the Lead in Two-Way Ballot Test
When voters are asked to choose directly between the incumbent Republican and the Independent challenger, Achilles surges past Risch:
Todd Achilles (I): 38%
Jim Risch (R): 33%
Not sure: 29%
Achilles commanding 38% support—and leading a three-term incumbent by 5 percentage points—proves that his independent platform is uniting voters across party lines.
2. Incumbent Jim Risch Trapped Below 35%
Incumbent Jim Risch remains severely vulnerable and fails to reach even 35% support in a direct two-candidate matchup, continuing a trend driven by his negative net ratings:
Job Approval: 32% Approve / 39% Disapprove (-7 Net)
Favorability: 39% Favorable / 44% Unfavorable (-5 Net)
3. Positive Brand Image and High Upside
Achilles enters this head-to-head dynamic with strong goodwill and substantial room to expand his base:
Net Favorability: +27 points (36% Favorable / 9% Unfavorable)
Growth Potential: 54% of voters either have not heard of Achilles (23%) or remain undecided on him (31%).
4. Direct Alignment with Electorate Identity
While voter registration in Idaho leans 61% Republican, 45% of voters self-identify politically as Independents based on their core beliefs. When the ballot is streamlined to a choice between Risch and Achilles, independent and swing voters consolidate around the Achilles campaign.
