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What affect will Roe v. Wade decision have on the electorate?

In our most recent national survey, we wanted to find out what impact overturning Roe v. Wade would have on the electorate come November.


Among 1,200 adults (A) and 1,000 registered voters (RV), the Bullfinch Group national survey asked:


"If by the November midterm elections Roe v. Wade has been overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court, which of the following statements comes closest to your own opinion? (RANDOMIZE 1-2)"

It’s important to note that our national survey sample is a couple more points Democratic than Republican.


With that said, let’s dig into the results of this question a bit further:


More likely than usual to vote Democratic

  • Among self-identified Democrats, 66% say the decision would make them more likely than usual to vote Democratic.

  • Among self-identified Independents, 25% say the decision would make them more likely than usual to vote Democratic.

  • Among self-identified Republicans, 5% say the decision would make them more likely than usual to vote Democratic.

More likely than usual to vote Republican

  • Among self-identified Democrats, 5% say the decision would make them more likely than usual to vote Republican.

  • Among self-identified Independents, 19% say the decision would make them more likely than usual to vote Republican.

  • Among self-identified Republicans, 54% say the decision would make them more likely than usual to vote Republican.

From this data alone, we can see that if Roe v. Wade were overturned Democrats would be about 11 points more likely than usual to vote Democratic than Republicans would be to vote Republican, indicating a hair more enthusiasm among Democrats on the issue.


HOWEVER …


That decision would not affect how I vote

  • Among self-identified Democrats, 19% say the decision would not affect their vote.

  • Among self-identified Independents, 39% say the decision would not affect their vote.

  • Among self-identified Republicans, 31% say the decision would not affect their vote.

It’s understood that an issue like this will pull most Republicans to vote Republican, and Democrats to vote Democratic, and that midterm elections are all about turning out your base. With that said, I find it interesting that a plurality of Independents say the decision would not affect their vote. Further to that point, 18% of Independents say they’re unsure how the decision would affect their vote. That is to say that over half of Independents (57%) either responded that the Court’s decision would not affect their vote, or they’re unsure how overturning Roe v. Wade would impact their vote.


For everyone out there forecasting that the Court’s decision would be a sure-fire win for a given party come November, I’d maybe take pause and wonder if this is the issue that will make or break the election.


“So, if not Roe v. Wade, what issue will have the largest impact on the election?”


Not sure… the election is still half-a-year away. Though we did ask respondents to rank the most pressing issue in America, and while neither Social Issues nor International Issues moved too noticeably from q1 to q2, Economy has jumped up double-digits… (as my father-in-law would tell ya, voters always come back to dollars and cents).